Education Program for Result EPforR II Mainland Tanzania

This section builds on the IVT-report 2023/2024 and the Annual report 2023/2024. UTILIZATION OF FUNDS DISBURSED 2022/2023 The funds disbursed in 2023, from Sweden was in total SEK 167 291 000. The agreement states that the GoT must use funds for investments in the education sector. In FY 2022/2023, the GoT reports it has used funds for: * monitoring and evaluating the construction of primary and secondary school infrastructure. The GoT reviewed infrastructure in all the 184 Councils, covering 523 schools, including 162 primary schools and 361 secondary schools, to find the best way to complete these infrastructure. * facilitating the construction and rehabilitation of school infrastructure in 615 schools, including 162 primary schools and 361 secondary schools. The construction and rehabilitation included 180 classroom (129 for primary and 51 for secondary); 160 dormitories and completion of 285 secondary dormitories. In total 1 428 pit latrines were constructed (1 024 in primary schools and 386 in secondary schools). One new school has been built. * preparing the "Monitoring and Evaluation Plan" of the Ministry. The plan is expected to be a useful tool for the Ministry after the establishment of the Monitoring and Evaluation Unit. * reviewing of the School Quality Assurance Framework. The Framework includes various guidelines on how to best conduct assessments. The Framework will enable School Quality Assurers (school inspectors) to work based on the reviewed Education and Training Policy and Curriculum changes. * conducting the 3Rs assessment (Reading, writing and numeracy skills) conducted by the National Council of Tanzania Examinations which is held every two years as part of the implementation of DLI 4.2a and 4.2b. * development of the National Framework for Enabling School to become More Inclusive as part of DLI 1.5. This framework will enable the GoT to enhance understanding of primary schools, which are not inclusive and lay out measures on how to improve inclusion. Based on the description by GoT, on how funds have been used, the Embassy of Sweden's assessment is that the prioritisation of construction and rehabilitation of classrooms is relevant since there is a great shortage of class-rooms. PROGRAM RESULTS 2023/2024 RESULT AREA 1: Improving school learning environment DLI 1.1 New Primary Teachers postings are compliant with staffing priorities The purpose with this DLI is to strengthen the institutional process of appointing teachers to schools with greatest shortages. The DLI provides the national Government with an incentive to ensure that when new teachers are deployed, they are deployed to schools with greatest needs. The DLI was included in the bridging year, and in EPforR I. In 2021/2022, percent achievement was 88.40%. In 2022/2023, percent achievement was 94.62%. In 2023/2024, percent achievement was 97.78%. In the year 2023/2024 the Government deployed 7,628 teachers in accordance with the teacher allocation protocol, 7,566 regular teachers and 62 teachers who either have disabilities or are trained in special needs. In total 7,801 teachers were deployed and of this figure 173 were not deployed according to the protocol. DLI 1.1 C Newly recruited primary teachers successfully deployed to a priority vacancy above attrition level This DLI was introduced in 2023 and aims at incentivize deployment of teachers above attrition. The attrition of teachers last year was 3,987, which means a total of 3,814 teachers (7.801-3,987) were deployed correctly. In 2023, percent achievement was 94.62%. In 2024, percent achievement was 82.88%. The Embassy of Sweden's assessment is that this DLI is working well and there are steady improvement over the years. DLI 1.4 D Compliance between primary TLM Allocation Protocol (P-TLMAP) priority list and actual materials distributed to school level. In 2022, the protocol for equitable allocation of teaching and learning material for Primary schools was developed using data from 2022 Annual School Census. The priority list approved by SMT in August 2022 identified a total of 18,970,030 textbooks as a priority for distribution in the academic year of 2023. The list considered the roll out of the new curriculum in 2024. When the list was prepared it was assumed that roll out of the new curriculum would only be done in pre-primary and primary 1 in 2024. However, in August 2023 the GoT announced that the new curriculum would be rolled out in grade 3 as well. At that time, TIE had already procured text books for standard 3. The priority list was revised and approved by SMT in June 2024. The revised P-TLMAP shows a target of 15,514,450 textbooks. The compliant distribution of textbooks was 3,889,934, a performance rate of 25.07%. In 2024, Percent achievement was 25.07%. There are several challenges in this DLI. In the GoT's annual report, revision of the target of the priority list is raised as one challenge. A second ("huge") challenge is the inadequate funding for teaching and learning material, and budget allocation to TIE, Tanzania Institute of Education. The Embassy of Sweden concur with the GoT and the IVT and the assessment that there are two major challenges with this DLI. The first one relates to implementation of the TLMAP, i.e institutionalisation of routines and practices to follow the TLMAP. The second challenge is the inadequate funding of textbooks. The Embassy of Sweden has to closely follow up on both challenges. DLI 1.6 A Secondary Teacher Allocation Protocol (S-TAP) is developed and agreed The aim with this DLI is to incentivize GoT in ensuring that newly deployed teachers for secondary schools are allocated to the schools in most need. Secondary education is in total six years, lower secondary and upper secondary. The secondary allocation protocol is based on parameters like maximum teachers' workload and number of periods per week. The guiding strategy for the protocol is the Secondary Teachers' Deployment Strategy. A challenge in secondary education is the lack of teachers in STEM. This DLI is foundational meaning that the development of an approved S-TAP is 100% achievement. However, there have been challenges in developing the protocol and the assessment is that the quality of the protocol needs to be improved. One challenge with the S-TAP as well as in the Teacher Forecasting Framework, is that teachers are trained in two subjects and the data collection in the Annual School Census is not aligned to grasp this in a proper way. The Annual School Census therefore has to be developed to better grasp the number of teachers at secondary level for better estimations of correct numbers of needed teachers. RESULT AREA 2: Improving Teaching/Teacher Workforce Planning and Management DLI 2.1 Teacher Forecasting Framework developed and implemented The DLI aims at ensuring there is an effective system that forecasts the right number of needed teachers with appropriate skills. The system will also ensure that there is proper utilization of the teachers in the workforce. The Teacher Framework Framework is important in the development of planning a robust teacher management process. DLI 2.2 Teacher incentivization guidelines developed and implemented The teacher incentivization guideline is a foundational DLI supported by GPE. It provides a roadmap for motivating, attracting, and retaining recruited teachers in the profession. The TIG, Teacher incentivisation guideline, was produced by the Ministry and some delays was recognised. The Embassy of Sweden's assessment is that this DLI needs close monitoring since DLI 2.2B, implementation of teacher incentives by LGAs, will be assessed already in August 2025. RESULT AREA 3: Strengthening Governance and Institutional Capacity DLI 3.1 A: The share of public expenditure allocated to the sector is 20%. The intention with this DLI is to ensure that all relevant partners, MoFP, MoEST, PO-RALG, DPs, are involved in a discussion about annual recurrent education budget allocations. The aim is to incentivize the MoFP to ensure the annual recurrent budget meets the target of 20% of public expenditure (excluding debt servicing costs) and provide the MoEST and PO-RALG with additional leverage in negotiations of their annual budget. In 2019/2020 the GoT allocated 17.9%, in 2020/2021 the allocation was 18% and in 2021/2022 the allocation was 19.3%. In 2021/2022, the percent achievement was 71.86%, (19.3% of target 20%) In 2022/2023, the percent achievement was 1.94%, (17.55% of target 20%) In 2023/2024, the percent achievement was 5.18%, (17.63% of target 20%) The total education sector budget increased by 5% in 2023/2024 from TSh 5,685 billion to TSh 5,980 billion. Both Embassy of Sweden and GPE funds this DLI and in 2023/2024 the GoT claimed SEK 517,685 from the maximum available funding of SEK 10,000,000 (Sida) and US$ 77,653 from the maximum available funding of US$ 1,500,000 (GPE). The education sector budget for 2024/2025 is 17.0% and by that below the threshold 17.5%. Advocacy at the highest levels and at an early stage by MoEST and PO-RALG, with support from development partners, is likely to be required if this trend is to be reversed. The Embassy of Sweden's assessment is that this DLI is of highest priority to follow-up on. If the GoT cannot manage to allocate the expected budget for the education sector it is a challenge of great significance since important investments in the education sector will fail to appear. DLI 3.1 B: The budget releases in support of key programme activities are allocated in accordance with the EPforR II budget framework The DLI incentivizes GoT's allocation and release of funds against a set of agreed annual budget lines, the EPforR II Budget Framework. The framework is agreed annually and the 2023/2024 version contains five separate areas of expenditures, approximately TSh 226.6 billion. The budget lines are split across several ministries and agencies PO-RALG, MoEST, MoF, NECTA and TIE. The intention is to ensure the GoT prioritize recurrent budget lines that have a direct influence on the program outcomes. For 2023/2024 the percent performance was 94.9%. Compared to last year the spending on textbooks, teaching and learning materials, have increased. The reason mentioned in the Annual report is that disbursements from MoF to TIE has improved. The budget utilization on capitation grants to primary and secondary schools has also improved. In 2022, for the first time since 2017, the GoT increased the allocation for capitation grant by 25% to reflect the increase in enrollment resulting from fee free education that was introduced in 2016, to match inflation and to mitigate against the effects by COVID-19. The budget utilization for School Quality Assurance was included for the first time in 2017/18 to ensure the roll out of the School Quality Assurance system. GoT has since then mainstreamed the budget line in the MoEST annual budget MTEF to ensure resources to School Quality Assurance service. The 3Rs Assessment Activities are carried out bi-annually by NECTA. In the annual report it is written that a strength of DLI 3.1B is that it provides a clear incentive for the GoT to provide reliable and adequate resources to key activities. Since there are few budget lines in the framework, inadequate utilization in few budget lines could reduce the disbursement. However, as pointed out in the annual report, the risk is adequately mitigated since all the priority budget lines have been mainstreamed with the Education Sector MTEF. The Embassy of Sweden's assessment is that this DLI is in general successful, however the learning results must be discussed in more detail. The DLI was developed in EPforR I and the reporting in the Annual report and IVT-report indicate that it has become institutionalised in regular operations. RESULT AREA:4 Outcome DLIs DLI 4.1 A, Government has achieved improved primary survival rates with gender parity GoT tracks survival rates of students. The survival rate is a proxy indicator of student dropout. The DLI was introduced in 2017 in EPforR I, following the Mid-Term review. From 2018 the Primary Survival Rate and Lower Secondary Survival Rate were assessed separately, the latter was dropped in EPforR II. The aim with this DLI is to incentivize LGAs to ensure students are retained in basic education and don't drop out. The fund release to each LGA is based on two dimensions. Each one is compared to the LGAs' results in the previous year and the national average for the current year: 1) Maintained or improved Primary Survival Rate, 2) Maintaining or improving Gender Parity Index (GPI) of the Primary Survival Rate. To achieve maximum score LGAs need to increase Primary Survival Rate and ensure no gender inequality remains. The funding mechanism is designed so that 100% should be released each year and the LGAs compete with each other, the better an LGA performs, the larger portion of the total funds it will receive. In 2017 (baseline year) the Primary Survival Rate was 64.39%, in 2018 it improved to 88.63% and since then it has declined. In 2023/2024 the Primary Survival Rate was 68.21%. In 2024, 55 LGAs improved Primary Survival Rate, 15 LGAs saw a decline by more than 20% and 3 LGAs saw a decline of more than 30%. The Gender Parity Index shows that more girls than boys, stay in schools. The number of LGAs with a GPI for PSR outside the acceptable range (0.97-1.03) increased from 171 in 2023 to 175 in 2025. A study on PSR and GPI was presented at the SMT, with the aim of analysing the declining trend. The study showed, e.g. that distance to school and community beliefs matters for PSR. The GoT regards the implementation of DLI 1.5 (national framework for inclusive schools) as a mitigation of the declining PSR. DLI 4.1 B Government has achieved improved primary to secondary transition rates with gender parity This DLI is similar to DLI 4.1A, but instead of measuring retention in school it measures transition from primary education to lower secondary education. There are two dimensions in the measure; 1) Maintained or improved primary to lower secondary transition rate and 2) maintaining or improving Gender Parity Index of the Primary to Lower Secondary transition rate. Each LGA is compared to its result the previous year and to the national average for the current year. The aim is to incentives the LGAs to increase the number of students completing primary and transitioning to lower secondary. The trend is positive from 2016 to 2020. In 2016, the overall transition rate was 65.85%, and it increased to a peak of 76.18% in 2020 before experiencing a decline to 73.35% in 2023, followed by a minor improvement to 74.88% in 2024. However, more than 1 of 4 children still do not transition successfully from primary to lower secondary education in Tanzania. DLI 4.2 Improved Learning outcomes on National 3Rs Assessment Two indicators are incentivized under this DLI; DLI 4.2A Meet biennial targets in average national 3Rs assessment oral reading and fluency, and DLI 4.2B Meet biennial targets in average national 3Rs in Arithmetic. The purpose of the DLI is twofold, to encourage continued improvement of learning outcomes in basic literacy skills and to ensure continued attention to monitoring learning outcomes. National assessments of 3Rs have been conducted on biennial basis since 2013 but since then several positive changes have been made. One change in 2019 was that NECTA took over the 3R assessment from a procured consultancy firm. There was also a change, in accordance with international best practices, to reduce the number of correct words per minute from 50 to 45. Some other changes took place when EPforR II was launched and hence the baseline year was changed from 2013 to 2019. Since 2019 the results in fluency and in reading have improved. In 2019 18.90% of students attained the national bench mark in fluency, the number of students increased in 2023 to 26.2%. In 2019, 15.60% scored zero while in 2023, 13.4% scored zero. The trend is positive in reading as well. In 2019, 38.7% attained the benchmark compared to 49% in 2023. Students who scored zero was 23.4% in 2019 compared to 19% in 2023. In Arithmetic the trend is negative. In 2019, 17.1% of the students attained the benchmark while in 2023 it was only 14.6% of the students who managed to attain the benchmark. Students who scored zero on the test increased from 22.8% in 2019 to 30.6% in 2023. The region that has performed best since 2019 is Rukwa Region followed by Arusha, Manyara and Lindi. The regions that improved least are Ruvuma and Morogoro. The results in numeracy is concerning and the GoT writes in its annual report that the result is almost in par with the baseline in 2013. Further they write "The Government is going to investigate this matter and implement a raft of radical strategies to stem the tide. Without immediate action, the future of students pursuing STEM subjects is at stake." The GoT proposes that the 3R assessment should be regionalized in the sense that the DLI can incentivize regional and local government performance. The Group Administered Learning Assessment, GALA, has been piloted and the suggestion is to role it out nationally. It is anticipated that the role out of GALA will reduce the cost of 3Rs assessment. The Embassy of Sweden's assessment in general is that the learning outcomes in fluency and reading is acceptable and in arithmetic concerning.

The program is result based and the identified targets clarifies what is intended to be different by the end of the intervention. The overall objective of the programme is to support improvement of learning achievements at the Pre-Primary and Primary education levels through improved performance focusing on strengthened education delivery systems. Three result areas have been identified to contribute to the overall objective: i) Improve School Learning Environment, ii) Improve Teacher Competencies and Classroom Teaching and iii) Strengthen Governance and Institutional Capacity and Systems. In addition, two outcome indicators have been identified: Improved Gender-equitable Retention and Transition rate and to Improve Learning Outcomes. Sida will not fund all areas but has been part of the negotiations in all areas to ensure alignment between areas and with the GPE program.