Afrobarometer Pre-election survey Zim

Prior to the election, there were high levels of uncertainty in relation to the political atmosphere in Zimbabwe. To reduce the uncertainty of the political atmosphere and increase information availability to assist key stakeholders in preparing for the election, the engagements with stakeholders proved very useful. The survey generated comprehensive and nationally representative data on the views and opinions of adult Zimbabweans regarding various aspects of the harmonized 2023 elections. Public awareness and knowledge of public opinion data on elections and related matters was significantly increased and this assertion was assessed using references/citations made to Afrobarometer survey findings in Zimbabwe in 2022 as compared to the 2023 media coverage reports as tracked and documented by Meltwater monitoring reports. Specifically, using online media hits as a metric, there were a total of 142 media hits in 2022 and in 2023, the number of media hits that cited Afrobarometer in Zimbabwe recorded 495 media hits. The 2023 media reports referenced above were accessed by a total of 40,922,747 people (in Zimbabwe and globally). Furthermore, one of the Press releases that was issued using findings from the pre-election survey was focused on disseminating the views and opinions of Zimbabweans about their expectation of the 2023 election. Indeed, the findings revealed that Zimbabweans were more interested in peaceful election even if it meant substituting their peace for free and fair elections. The press release was widely disseminated. The report also highlighted specific population demographics that had relatively high expectations of a peaceful election and this was useful information that was shared with the election stakeholders and the public at large to inform state institutions to take the needed steps to ensure a peaceful, free and fair election. In summary, the survey successfully gathered election-related information and was shared with all major stakeholders ahead of the 2023 elections. It is worth noting that the survey findings were relevant to election watchdogs, political parties, and civil society organizations for their programming purposes. Beyond the press release, other project-related activities including the sensitization workshops were avenues used to increase public and stakeholders awareness of potential risks of violence and this served as an early warning signal prior to the 2023 elections to help prevent and reduce potential election-related violence. The objective of capacitating different stakeholders on how to analyse, correctly interpret, use and report survey results was successfully achieved. The survey activities helped to improve the uptake of Afrobarometer data and increased the utilization of the data by providing training to stakeholders on how to use the study findings and interpret the data effectively. Improved uptake of public opinion data on election related matters extensive media coverage, various opinion pieces and enquiries about the data confirm this. Results and analysis generated huge interest in Zimbabwe elections and focused attention of local and international election stakeholders on how the contest was managed. For instance, Studio 7 of the Voice of America (VOA) reached out to MPOI to get a Shona and Ndebele version of the survey results for them to share on their channel. Huge media houses like The Herald made use of the survey results. In addition, the results of Afrobarometer were shared on national public radio. However, it is important to highlight that the interpretation of data by different media tended to be biased depending on where the media house leans towards politically. MPOI noticed the tendency by different media houses to focus on a particular section of the results but rejected the other equally important aspects of the study. For instance, the results reported by The Herald focused on the voting intentions, which favoured ZANU PF but there was absence of attention on issues to do with corruption in public institutions, which respondents said was rampant and perennial. This is indicative of the high levels of polarisation of the media and indeed of other sectors in Zimbabwe. The manner in which the findings were presented and analysed reflected that polarisation. Some private media alleged that MPOI was captured by the regime, based on the findings that showed the ruling party having an upper hand in questions that had to do with feeling close to a party or voting intentions. The response on social media was overwhelming but it was largely negative. Part of the reason is that social media users are likely urban people and these tend to be affiliated or sympathetic to the opposition. As such, the voting intentions results from the pre-election survey were not positive to them. The election results also triggered significant interest amongst the citizenry, with a substantial number of participants attending the pre-election survey results, and public release events as well generating debated on various social media platforms like X (formerly twitter).

Målen för insatsen, som de är formulerade i projektförslaget, är som följer: 1. Promote issue- and evidence-based debates, advocacy, and reporting. 1.1 Widespread awareness of AB survey data and analysis on the pre-election environment 1.2 Competing candidates and parties reference AB survey data in electoral campaigns 1.3 Civil society groups and activists use AB survey data in their advocacy and engagements 1.4 Media reports cite/reflect AB survey data and analysis 1.5 Election-related discourse on media platforms reference AB survey data and analysis are generally focused on issues 2. Support efforts by other election stakeholders such as the Electoral Commission, security agencies, and development partners among others towards promoting peaceful, free, and fair elections by providing them timely and credible empirical data upon which they can design programs and interventions. 2.1 Stakeholders request (and use) AB survey data 2.2 Stakeholder election-related interventions cite and/or reflect AB survey data and analysis