SIWI/ICBA Tigris River Basin, 2013-2018

Results related to the intended outcome 2018, which was the fifth and final year has been reported in a synthesis report. It is an aggregation of reports submitted by the five partners; Stockholm International Water Initiative (SIWI), Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), American University of Beirut (AUB) and Science for Resilience and Livelihood in Dry Areas (ICARDA). These organizations have supported official cadre in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Kurdistan and Iran to collect and analyze data on several topics related to the management of the whole basin. Sida assess that increased human capacity has been reached among national partners to use satellite remote sensing, modelling complex water-energy-food systems, climate change predictions following various emission scenarios, and the concepts of water productivity. One of the main outcomes of the project is the exchange of primary data and harmonized methodologies and analysis. The CPET project has succeeded in gaining increased awareness at a regional level, of common challenges i.a.  access to clean water and affordable energy. Below are some of the recommended actions and approaches highlighted in the synthesis report;- Strategies to bring more water to the poor must be further explored - Target an increase, in agriculture crop yields by use efficient technologies.- Focus on actual volumes of water consumed, rather than water withdrawn.- Optimize the operational management of dams through the basin with collaboration of all stakeholders, so that the benefits storage can be maximized during dry spells.- Evaluate evapotranspiration in the landscape to increase renewable water resources. - Address both point- and diffuse sources of pollution to improve water quality.- Increased use of public domain datasets - but with an open critical attitude.- Persist with marshland restoration by improved upstream irrigation techniques.- Reconsider the drive to expand irrigated agriculture.- More attention to the socio-economic wellbeing of the marshland people. - Monitor marshland water resources and restoration. - Assessment of marshland biodiversity as a function of salinity.- Creating a regional energy mix with hydropower as a balancing source. Sida has funded the Collaborative Program for the Euphrates and Tigris (CPET) basin during the period 2013- 2019 with a budget of SEK 46 million (SEK 45,798,248). ICBA (International Center for Biosaline Agriculture) based in Oman, has coordinated five organizations which have been contracted by ICBA. By and large, the project has performed well, given the tensions in the region during the project period. The by ICBA contracted partners have delivered according to the agreements with ICBA, although there have been delays. Sida have extended the agreement with ICBA four times. The annual audit 2019 was clean apart from a comment on ICARDA, which has not keept adequate time reports for all their staff. The CPET project has provided a platform for collaboration between experts from the riparian countries in the Euphrates and Tigris basin. National experts have been exposed to technologies that provide a transparent analysis of water resources, both nationally and at the basin-wide level. Increased capacity has been reached to use satellite remote sensing, modelling complex water-energy-food systems, climate change predictions following various emission scenarios, and the concepts of water productivity. In addition, the CPET project has given participants a common understanding of some key concepts like, distinction between gross and net withdrawals of water. Ensuring that the different stakeholders agree on a common set of data and statistics is an important step towards diffusing the water-related conflicts and disputes in the area. Equally important are the dialogues on the socio-economic aspects within the study region. The project has created a unified set of data which provides a consistent set of information for the entire Euphrates and Tigris region. Future drivers for water resources in the Euphrates-Tigris is affected by reduced rainfall and river flows, population growth, economic and industrial development and noncontrolled groundwater abstractions by riparian countries. It will be exacerbated by expected climate change. The inter-annual rainfall variability varies largely (-33% to +38%) and the reduction in water availability with a more erratic rain fall pattern requires major changes in agriculture and energy supply. Overall Tigris that is more prone to climate change than Euphrates. An important message emphasized by the work of CPET is the strong connection between the upstream and downstream sections of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. The analysis shows that there is a potential to more than double the cereal crops yields crop by increasing water use efficiency. It is assessed that 5 ton/ha for cereals is feasible almost everywhere in the basin. However, cereal yields in irrigation systems were seriously affected during below average rainfall years, showing that irrigation was not effective enough in protecting crops from water deficits. The patterns of water quality and quantity in the rivers’ watersheds are affected by land use and management dynamics. Irrigation is the largest water consumer. Due to low irrigation efficiencies (30 to 40 %), the leaching of salts and other fertilisers, together with other anthropogenic and natural causes, results in very serious non-point source pollution at many locations along the rivers. Actions should focus on improving system efficiencies, the drainage of saline water, wastewater treatment, and the reuse of wastewater. The National water quality standard varies in the region; (< 700 mg/L for ‘Excellent’ and < 2000 mg/L for ‘Good’ water), the Turkish National Standards (< 280 mg/L for high quality water, <700 mg/L for low polluted water), and the Syrian and Iraqi National Standards (< 1500 mg/L and < 1000 mg/L respectively); large portions of the lower parts of the Euphrates, Tigris and Shatt Al Arab fall outside of these ranges. Generally, the nitrate concentration levels in both the Euphrates and Tigris rivers were found to meet the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) standards (< 5.0 mg/L NO3-N for drinking and < 10.0 mg/L NO3-N), the Turkish National Standards (< 3.0 mg/L NO3N for high quality water, and < 10.0 mg/L NO3-N for low polluted water), as well as, Iraqi National Standards, and Syrian National Standards for drinking uses (11.3 mg/L NO3-N) in most of the locations along these rivers. However, there are many hotspot areas in the upper parts of the basin where the nitrate concentration levels exceeded these standards. Pollution is also observed to increase where intensive agriculture is practiced. The available data showed also that the Tigris is more affected by nitrate pollution than the Euphrates. This can be expected given that the Tigris River traverses more densely populated areas with more industrial and agricultural activity, thus collecting polluted water discharged from wastewater treatment plants, industrial works, and irrigation return flows. The GDP levels among the riparian countries has changed manifold the last decades. While the GDP of the three riparian countries (Turkey, Syria, Iraq) was similar in 1960, Turkey is now the 17th largest economy in the world with a GDP of USD 9,300 per capita. Iraq’s GDP per capita was higher than Turkey’s from the mid 1970’s up until the end of the 1990’s. Iraq’s GDP has dropped significantly from over USD 10,000 at the end of the 1980’s to about USD 3,000 in 2007. Syria has experienced the slowest growth amongst the three countries and now stands at USD 2,000 per capita. There is widespread poverty in the basin. Two gaps were noticed in the 2007 data (most recent common figures): one across the three riparian countries and one within the urban and rural communities within each country. Syria has the highest level of poverty at 35% of the population. In all three countries, the rural poverty is substantially higher than in the urban areas. The largest discrepancy holds for Iraq where the poverty gap is 2.5 times higher in the rural areas. The Country Partners have indicated that water should be affordable provided that the cost of water services does not exceed 5% of the household’s total expenditure. Affordability levels are higher for urban areas. The current level of affordability is supported by government subsidies, which might not be viable on the long term. Proper pricing mechanisms need to be put in place, while accounting for the willingness-to-pay and/or the ability-to-pay of the consumers. The outcome of a socio-economic questionnaire directed to country partner experts on the the greatest threats gave as response;  “Hydrology and climate change impacts”, “Water quality and pollution”, and “Water governance issues”. Proper water governance requires the utmost attention as, without this, sustainability issues will only be exacerbated. The findings highlight that water scarcity exacerbates rural poverty, making communities more vulnerable to migration and ultimately affecting regional stability and growth. The impacts of dam construction, extensive water withdrawals (especially for agriculture), urbanisation and pollution have inevitably had a negative impact on the riparian environment in the Basin, and especially on the marshlands at the tail-end of the system. Over the period 2005 to 2008 Turkey has improved its Global Benefit Index for Biodiversity (GBI) from 5.97 to 6.23. Iraq’s score has declined from 1.69 to 1.56 and Syria had a substantial decrease from 0.93 to 0.87. A central premise for any water allocation scheme should be the protection and restoration of the Euphrates and Tigris marshlands. The CPET study has shown that, thanks to restoration efforts, some of the marshlands have started to recover, although this recovery has been slow, at best. Trends showing deteriorating water quality especially the increase in salinity. With flow volumes declining restoration plans must also be linked to overall water allocation planning across the wider study area (i.e. agricultural, industrial and domestic water supply). Of the three marshlands, the Huwaiza appears to have shown the most robust recovery, while the Hammar and Central marshland recoveries have stalled due to deteriorating water quality and dwindling water supplies. Demographics provide the main driver for increased water demand and pollution. Population shows a steady growth over the last 50 years, with the exception of Syria where the population has been in decline since 2011. The population structure is similar in the three riparian countries with women at approximately 50%, and youth (less than 15 years old) comprising nearly as many as people the group from 15 to 64 years. This distribution indicates a fast-growing population. This will have a substantial impact on future water demand (SDG6), and this must be accounted for in all planning processes now being drafted. While female primary school enrolment is high (but decreasing in Syria), secondary school enrolment shows significant differences between the riparian countries. Female participation increased from below 20% in 1970 in the three riparian countries to 100% in Turkey in 2005, 80% in 2002 in Syria (although declining again to 50% in 2007), and 40% in Iraq. The gender disparity in school enrolment needs urgent attention with the female adult literacy rate at 86% of that of males in Iraq, 88% in Syria, and 94% in Turkey. At the same time women play important roles in all agricultural activities. Literacy, and exposure to the latest techniques, can stimulate female agricultural entrepreneurship (SDG4; SDG5; SDG8; SDG1). Anecdotal evidence suggests that women still play the key role in rural water supply, with traditional society considering the cost to be cheaper when undertaken by women. In agriculture in Syria 70% all activities are performed by women. Crop irrigation in Turkey is perceived to be a man’s job. The currently installed hydropower capacity in the Euphrates and Tigris basin is approximately 12,000 MW. About half of this capacity (5,566 MW) is in use within the Grand Anatolia Project (GAP) in Turkey and an additional 2,000 MW will be added when the project is completed. The currently installed hydropower capacity in Iraq is 2,440 MW, KRG 625 MW, Syria 1,568 MW, while 7,383 MW is installed in the GAP region in Turkey. The major advantage of hydropower is its ability to quickly compensate for fluctuations in energy demand thus protecting the power grid and stabilizing energy distribution. All the riparian countries have ambitious targets of increasing their renewable energy capacity of wind, solar, and hydropower as stated in their national plans, visions, and feasibility studies. Iran has a target of 5% of the national energy capacity from renewable sources. Iraq set a committed target to reach 1,940 MW from solar energy by the year 2020, Syria stated its master development plan of renewable energy that renewable sources were planned to supply 4.3% (100,000 MW) of the total national energy demand by 2011. The Turkish government has also made it a priority to increase the share of renewable sources. Existing water policies and regulations in the Euphrates-Tigris riparian countries cover a broad range of water related issues. Yet, all would benefit from a less centralized decision-making process that encourages more efficient and equitable water management. Planning and monitoring of existing water management policies remains a key challenge due to institutional constraints and the recurring crises in the region. National scale and basin-wide optimized water resources management plans (master plans) should be created which is the responsibility of the National Governments.

1. Improved dialogue and trust in the Euphrates and Tigris region on transboundary water management 2. Use new knowledge of commonly agreed and ground-truth evidence based information on Euphrates and Tigris regional water use and services