Credible Explanations of Development Outcomes: Improving Quality and Rigour with Bayesian Theory-Based Evaluation (2021:3)

Sammanfattning

This report presents an innovative methodology to conduct theorybased evaluations (TBEs) of development interventions as well as
programmes relevant to other policy sectors. TBEs usually aim at
explaining development outcomes rather than measuring net effects
like experimental methods do; they are oriented towards learning and
improvement rather than accountability and yes/no decisions on
whether to abolish, suspend, continue, or scale up programmes. The
learning element is captured by evaluation questions to the effect of
“how and why has the intervention worked or not”; “will the
intervention work in other contexts or in the future”, or “who is the
intervention working and not working for”. The theories covered by
this method are medium-low level, which means they relate to single
case studies.