Statistiskt stöd till Somalia fas II

Statistics Sweden has continued its work to capacity strengthen Somali statistical authorities. After a long period without engagement of the statistical authority in Somaliland, it has decided to re-engage with the programme. This is positive, but also created a need for some adjustments to implementation plans. SCB reported a number of achievements during 2023, the main ones being the following: - Puntland has successfully produced GDP figures using the knowledge and methods they have learnt from working with SCB. SCB has noted steady improvements in e.g. calculation methodology. According to SCB, Puntland is on the verge of being able to produce GDP figures without support. - Training in statistics software has improved the ability of statistical agencies to improve data analysis and presentation. The agencies are now able to analyse data and generate statistics more efficiently and with higher quality. - An e-learning platform has been established and facilitated the publication of 22 educational videos, focusing on statistical methodology. Many of the videos have had more than 1,000 viewers. This has, according to SCB, a potential to increasing statistical literacy. Despite these results, SCB states that the achievement of results was lower than expected during 2023. The main reason for this is connected to the need to re-programme activities to avoid duplication as new actors (e.g. the World Bank) has increased their level of engagement in the same field as SCB, primarily economic statistics. This has also led to a lower level of budget consumption than expected. The report clearly describes the process of re-programming and the effects it has had on the implementation and results. Many of the activities in the results framework is coloured pink, which means they are no longer relevant as the programme has been changed underway. There is still a lack of discussion of how the changes in the programme affects the overall impact of the programme in connection to the intended outcomes. The report does provide information on results from previoius programmes and how the activities for 2023 links to and builds on them. There are specific sections on learning and adaptation, risks and coordination with other develoment partners, which is useful. It describes how SCB continuously is adapting to a changing political context, changes in donor engagement and deals with a difficult security situation. The consultancy firm NIRAS published an external assessment of the achievements of Statistics Sweden. The results have been gathered using primarily interviews and workshops. The assessment has divided the results into several different sections: Development impact, project outcomes, sustainability of results, project modalities, challenges, factors for success and insights for possible future engagement. The results are measures against the four result areas in the project document. The report states that the project "clearly" has managed to improve the technical statistical capacity of the involved stakeholders and to some extent strengthened the organisational capacity of the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) and Puntland Statistics Department (PSD). The assessments states that the understanding of the value of statistical data among Somali government agencies is still low, but there are signs of a growing interest, for example: - New sectors are producing data and domestic data collection is used more often than before, even if many government agencies still rely on receiving Somali data from external sources. - There is an increased demand for statistical data from key government institutions such as the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health to name a few. In Puntland, politicians are requesting baseline data for development of a new five-year development plan. - There is an increased use of domestic data by different government agencies for planning. - There is an increased awareness of the importance of data. A sign of this is that the President has made SNBS an agency instead of a department within a ministry. - PSD is moving towards managing many of their tasks without additional technical assistance. These changes are, according to the report, linked to an increased statistical capacity of several actors withing the system, including Statistics Sweden's counterparts SNBS and PSD. It is also the result of a clearer institutional framework, created by the new National Statistics Act (2020). The report also mentions a number of tangible results that previously have been highlighted in Statistics Sweden's reporting, including production of GDP statistics on an annual basis, consumer price index data on a monthly basis, production of gender statistics and a household budget report. New actors have come in strongly in the statistics field recently, like the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This has been made possible, according to the report, by the increased capacity that the Swedish support has provided. Statistics Sweden is, however, not so sure the organisational capacity, in terms of management, has improved significantly. The limitations to travel to counterparts in Somalia has hampered the ability to assess this capacity. SNBS states that the agency now has a low dependency of Swedish support for maintaining the results of the project. PSD on the other hand is in a financially difficult position as only 20 % of the staff is funded through government funding and a withdrawn Swedish support would make it difficult to sustain the results. Statistics Sweden's approach to capacity development is clearly appreciated by the involved entities. One of the respondents representing PSD states: "They [Statistics Sweden] don't come to do things by themselves but support us to do the work ourselves... The model of cooperating is very effective and results oriented. We see the outcomes of that approach. We take that approach as a standard for how we want to work with other partners." This approach has made the capacity stay within SNBS and PSD instead of only functioning as a capacity injection that doesn't leave sustainable traces. The assessment states that Sida's (Sweden's) approach to implementation has been valuable for results. As the project has encountered implementation challenges (including the Covid-19 pandemic), the dialogue has been transparent, constructive and solution-oriented, according to the report.

Development objectives The overall development objective of this intervention is strengthened statistical capacity with the purpose of raising decision makers awareness, understanding and trust in statistical data. Expected results by the end of the intervention: 1) Statistical production: The Somali statistical authorities have improved the quality of statistical production in social and economic statistics 2) Statistical methodology: The general capacity in statistical methodology is improved and strengthened at the statistical departments 3) Communication and dissemination: Users have increased access to statistics data 4) Management: Planning and organisation of the statistical departments are improved The project proposal has a Theory of Change (ToC) following the logic below with some examples what is achieved at each level: Individual learning --> Institutional change --> Institutional effectiveness by increased access to data --> Increased level of awareness and trust in statistics by decision-makers --> Reaching country's development goals Individual learning - Staff is trained in different statistical areas (social, economic and environment), in methodology, communication, dissemination and management of statistics, this leads to Institutional change - when staff are trained and motivated statistical directorate and departments can develop realistic work plans for various statistical subject areas, this leads to Institutional effectiveness by increased access to data - Statistical departments, through their trained staff, have increased routines and capacity to produce and disseminate quality statistics, this leads to Increased level of awareness and trust in statistics by decision-makers - when the statistics produced and disseminated by statistics departments are recognised as of high quality it is used by decision makers for policy making and this leads to Reaching country's development goals - when using quality statistics, the country is able to better monitor the progress of the NDP and the SDGs and thus reaching and monitoring the country's development goals is enhanced.