IMF kapacitetsutveckling i Vitryssland

- Given the very professional way, in which the intervention was managed, it is hardly surprising that there were no unexpected results, whereas expected results were largely, if not completely, achieved, given the fact that the intervention was terminated by the side of Sida one half year in advance, as a reaction to the Presidential elections in August 2020, which were not conducted in a fair and transparent way. - As stated earlier, the intention in the beginning of 2020 was to extend the intervention with one year and added funding, in order to prepare for Phase II of the project. Looking backwards, very ambitious goals were set out in the beginning of the project that could not by any means have been fulfilled completely during the activity period (formally: 3½ years, in fact: 2½ years), but they were rather meant for a two-phase eight-year project. - Notwithstanding, the main results, strategic for the long-term well-functioning of the National Bank, were the following: --- (i) economic analysis and fore-casting capabilities were largely improved, by using: ------ Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in forecasting and policy analysis, with model-based results integrated into the decision-making process ------ Near-Term Forecasting (NTF) toolkit, integrated into medium-term forecasting exercises, using a structural approach ------ satellite models and fully-fledged Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which became operational and were regularly used, although results achieved were only of partial quality --- (ii) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) was fully integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process, by way of: ------ presenting, on a quarterly basis, a macro-economic development and forecast report to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), containing a baseline forecast with alternative scenarios, where MPC understood the structure of core QPM and underlying FPAS mechanisms, and used staff projections in their policy decision-making, and where these meetings were conducted in a manner of active discussions of results and feedback from MPC members ------ publishing monetary policy strategy objectives in a clear and understandable way ------ publishing MPC meetings summary within a reasonable time-frame, and, as of Feb. 2019, press briefings of the Chairman of the Board were scheduled after each quarterly Board meeting on monetary policy ------ publishing analytical reports routinely in an understandable way

- The aim of the project is: «to support the National Bank of Republic of Belarus in modernising its monetary policy framework, by enhancing the forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS), and, in particular, by building and enhancing the Bank’s modelling capacity and integrate FPAS into the monetary policy decision-making process. The longer-term aim of the project is to assist the Bank to facilitate transition to an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework». The project aims at: --- «Improved economic analysis and fore-casting capabilities of National Bank of Republic of Belarus» --- «Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) fully integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process»