GCFF Världsbanken Armenien NY

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The text below is based on the GCFF Technical note approved by the Steering Committee on GCFF 19 January 2022 on The Theory of Change and Revised Results and Reporting Framework for GCFF. The revision was recommended in the evaluation of 2020 an expand the number of indicators and make them more relvant for all ISAs to use. The Objectives have also been revised and out puts and outcomes at country- and global level Global level are more specified.( attachment) Some global indicators on gender equality and the need to listen to beneficiaries in regular hearings or through assessment still apply and are in chapter 8 of the GCFF Operational manual. The figure in the Technical note also clearly shows what GCFF will deliver (attribution, activities ), what GCFF achieves , (achievments, outputs), what GCFF enables (medium-term outcomes, what GCFF support (outcomes), what GCFF contributes to, (related longer term impacts). The new indicators, (see attached Results Framework in the Technical note page 6). AT COUNTRY LEVEL: A. The expected Longer-term impact of GCFF are the following: (GCFF CONTRIBUTE TO) 1.Refugees' and host communities well-being is improved 2. Increased social cohesion resulting from integration of and interaction between refugees and host communities 3. Refugees and host communities contribute to strengthened economic resilience and growth. B. Related Medium Term Outcomes are the following: (GCFF ENABLES) 1. Improved Socio-economic conditions and inclusion for refugees and host communities. 2. Increased capacity of Benefitting countries to better manage and mitigate shocks caused by refugee crisis. 3. Strengthened Development response as part of the broader humanitarian to development spectrum of engagement C. Short-term outcomes of GCFF and supported operations: (GCFF SUPPORTS) 1. Improved or expanded public services, job opportunities or access to finance for refugees and host communities. 2. Strengthened institutional or policy framework that guarantee rights or protections for refugees and host community members. 3. Increased development programming and financing in Benefitting Countries, BC:s, to support refugee and host community needs. D. GCFF Outputs, (deliverables) GCFF delivers 1. Reduced cost of Borrowing for Benefitting countries, BC.s 2. Fiscal space maintained by BC:s to respond to the needs of refugees and host communities. 3. Implementation of Implementation support agencies, ISA:s operations is enabled. 4. BC:s commit to new or further policies or actions to strengthen support to refugees and host communities AT GLOBAL LEVEL The activities are; To provide platform for coordination and mobilization on the needs of refugees and host communities in GC:s as well as Contribute to knowledge on responding to refugee crises in MDC:s. The above Results-framework provides a valuable reporting framework at country and global level and indicators can be used by the different MDB:s. There is s risk that they are still using their own indicators thus contributing to the lack of aggregation that this new results framework and the accompanying Theory of change would counteract. The implementation of the Results framework will need to be followed up but it likely to be sufficient for our follow up on results in Armenia and our follow up of the GCFF at global level. The evaluation in 2024 will evaluate the impact of this new Results Framework and the global indicators in the Operational Manual, chapter 8. In conclusion on the objectives. The objectives and the expected results are realistic considering the local experience and the many years of experience of the MDBs i Armenia. There is also a strong political will for change in the country. However, the political situation in southern Caucasus is currently unstable. Armenia is balancing between EU and is largest trade partner Russia. They are keen on reforms but a complicate election with violence could be a large risk for good results. It is thus important in the CCC and the Steering committee of GCFF to follow the situation on the ground as well as the political economy etc. GCFF has ability to to do so and can probably predict some changes, if they would happen in Armenia. However the political situation can quickly be unstable. It is thus important to propose to GCFF to develop a good risk analysis.